News
The latest news from Northern Monkey Punter.
Magnificent Marsha lands the Nunthorpe
25th August 2017
2017 has been a frustrating summer for the service with so many selections finishing second and narrowly getting beaten, but it was nice to see Marsha land the Nunthorpe for us at York on Friday.
Members were advised to back her at 10/1 to 8/1 and were told:
"The clash between Battaash and Lady Aurelia has been one of the talking points in the lead up to the Ebor meeting.
Both have been supremely impressive of late, but, when all is said and done, do you really want to take a price around 7/4 for either of them when there is little option to take out economical insurance to guard against a near miss at the hands of the other? I don't, as there are also other proven Group 1 performers in the race to consider as well.
The key horse to this whole race - despite what the pundits and the betting says - is 33/1 shot Take Cover. He has lots of early speed and if he were to match strides with Lady Aurelia then he could potentially bustle her up and set this up for a closer.
The pair clashed, on paper at least, in the King's Stand, and Take Cover actually showed the superior trap craft to slip into the early lead, but the key thing to note about that race was that there were effectively two races for the price of one; Take Cover headed those racing towards the far side of the track, while Lady Aurelia pretty much did her own thing and controlled matters towards the stands rail - without eyeballing Take Cover and being hindered by him - which may have been the case if they'd raced in one central group.
I would be interested to see them eyeball to eyeball today as the field size is smaller and there is a greater chance they'll all race in one cluster - lets see if Lady Aurelia can confirm what she showed at Ascot and become a true great.
There is a danger, though, her finishing effort might just be muted if she is taken out of her comfort zone (if Take Cover isn't outclassed and can get near her).
A potential pace duel would obviously suit the tactically versatile Battaash, who announced himself on the big stage when winning at Goodwood. He tanked his way through that race, taking a lead off Take Cover, and beat a solid yardstick, Profitable, who looks a big each-way price himself today at 16/1, but having watched the replay back countless times I have concluded that although Profitable was perhaps beaten fair and square, MARSHA can have her effort upgraded somewhat for finishing third.
She isn't always going to be fun to watch when Luke Morris is trusted with the reins - he's one of the most unsightly riders in the weighing room - but she was undeniably hampered last time in an incident that started when Profitable tried to make some ground upsides Take Cover but was shuffled back. Marsha was caught up in the melee and had to be switched for a run.
She made some nice late progress though and deserves another chance, especially since this drying ground will also be in her favour.
Those with the service earlier in the year will remember we had a very good bet on her - a MAX bet infact - for the King's Stand, and I am still of the opinion she's good enough to win a Group 1 in Britain.
Let's not forget her impressive win in the l'Abbaye at Chantilly last season or her notable Palace House victory this year - when she gave weight away and still got the job done first time out.
A secondary bet on Profitable, who is disgustingly big at 16/1, is also recommended. He is tied in with the two market leaders as well as Marsha, so we cannot overlook him, even if he did seem to be beaten fair and square by Battaash last time. He's a class horse and won't mind any bits of juice lingering in the ground."
Now the best time to join NMP?
7th June 2017
It has been a slow start to the new turf season for us and we recorded a loss of -14 pts in April - we had a string of near misses but it is winners, not placed selections, that can turn a losing month into a winning one.
May was steady away month and we recorded a profit of +5.35 pts on record. In reality, however, members achieved closer to 10 pts profit - the difference being a result of me settling my multiple bets at SP on record. We had a winning double involving a selection who was strongly backed just before the off.
The profit and loss figures show the 2017 service is -35 pts in the red since November (a -7 % ROI) but we know long-term, based on thousands of proofed bets, that NMP has a ROI edge of +10 % over the bookmakers......it could only be a matter of time until results start to correct themselves and, consequently, now may well be the best time to join my service.
Summer is traditionally the service's most profitable period and once the recent wet weather clears up I expect we'll be able to build on the May profit and kick on for the year.
Cheltenham debrief - 33/1 Sizing John winner and a 1-2-3 in the Gold Cup
18th March 2017
Bookmakers generally seemed to have the upper hand over the punters at this year's Festival and, Thursday aside, it was a bookies benefit meeting.
The NMP selections broke even over the course of the week, though, with the winners including Apple's Jade (9/2) in the Mares' Hurdle, Supasundae (20/1) in the Coral Cup and Presenting Percy (8/1) in the Pertemps Final.
We had Let's Dance in the Mares' Novice Hurdle at 5/2 in a double with another jumps pick before the Festival, while we also had Defi Du Seuil (Triumph Hurdle) at 11/4 in a nice double with a sprint winner at Lingfield.
However, the most pleasing result of the week for us - by some way - was the Cheltenham Gold Cup as we were on the impressive winner Sizing John at ante post prices up to 33/1 and also went in on the day again because I was so keen on him. Members were told on the morning of the race,
"We are on three in the Gold Cup but SIZING JOHN, by far, is the one that interests me most this morning as he oozes class and the ground has come up perfect for him.
Robbie Power gave him a brilliant ride in the Irish Gold Cup and having a man that is unfazed on the big stage is also a big plus.
The big question is whether he will stay the trip, but he is unexposed over it and the manner he kept on over 3m in Ireland last time suggested Jessica Harrington, who has already been among the winners this week, simply had to go for this race with him.
Djakadam is a danger having enjoyed a smoother prep than 12 months ago when second (would have been third if Cue Card hadn't fallen) but he's 3/1 and Sizing John is almost treble his price.
Native River has enjoyed a superb season and, for all the 8/1 we have about him is a great bet, he has slight doubts over the ground even if he is fully proven over the trip.
I cannot have Cue Card at all. Cheltenham is no place for old bones and his chance was last year when he fell. Sentiment has undoubtedly influenced his price (and may drive it in further today).
Outlander is unlikely to be good enough (Gordon Elliott preferred Empire of Dirt but the owner wanted that one in the Ryanair), Champagne West and Bristol De Mai could be lambs to the slaughter as they struggle to match strides with Native River upfront and I would worry More Of That, a bleeder, might not even complete, despite glowing reports from the gallops.
Of the rest, there is only one I think is good enough to potentially win a Gold Cup, Minella Rocco, and we are on him at good prices previously. The jockey bookings getting shuffled after the injury to Mark Walsh (Fehily now rides as Coleman shifts to More of That) boosts his claims and I think he could run a race at a price if those from further back in the field can get into it.
However, I don't think he, too, has the class of Sizing John, who has a gorgeous profile for the race. I am all over him and have put my free bets from William Hill on him as I still think he's a very good price this morning!
He was campaigned over the wrong trip, it seems, for Henry de Bromhead but has really come to life this season as Harrington has stepped him up in distance."
We were also on the Gold Cup second, Minella Rocco, at prices up to 33/1 ante post, while we had the third, Native River, on side ante post at 8/1 too. If anyone played a tricast on those three it paid £521.34 to a £1 stake, while the Trifecta on the Tote paid £584.20!
Personally, I did not have the winning combination covered in my own permutations, but would have collected one if Djakadam had clung on for third!
It was a great result for us all the same, with the horse bouncing off the good ground and producing a magnificent jump under pressure at the last to seal the victory.
Elsewhere at the Festival, we had also backed Cantlow (Cross Country) and On The Fringe (Foxhunters) in some nice multiples, while we were on Yanworth, who went off 2/1 favourite for the Champion Hurdle, at 12/1 ante post. We also had prices up to 20/1 for Unowhatimeanharry, who went off 5/6 favourite in the Stayers' Hurdle!
Although all four of these fancied selections disappointed, we would have only needed one or two of them to have gone in, which was entirely feasible, and it would have been an excellent week with a further 20-30 pts on the board!
We are looking ahead to Aintree and also the AW Finals next, while the turf season is soon approaching too. The turf season, in particular in the summer, is where we are expecting to make the bulk of our profit this year.
