UK Football Ante Posts 2024/25

Here are my football ante posts for the 2024/25 season: 

• Premier League (posted 10/8/24) - West Ham on  seasonal handicap 12/1 William Hill (+34 pts) or 14/1 Coral, Ladbrokes (+33 pts), each way (4 places, 1/4 odds)
• Championship (posted 29/7/24) - Leeds outright 7/2 Bet 365, 10/3 Coral, Ladbrokes
•  Championship (posted 29/7/24) - Leeds to be promoted 6/5 Bet 365, 11/10 Coral, Ladbrokes - strong bet
• Championship (posted 29/7/24) - Sunderland outright 33/1 Bet Victor, 25/1 Bet 365, Hills, Coral, Ladbrokes (3 places, 1/4 odds), smaller each-way
• Championship (posted 29/7/24) - Sunderland top six finish 10/3 Hills, Coral, Ladbrokes
• League One (posted 01/8/24) - Bolton to be promoted 3/1 Bet 365, 11/4 Betfred, 5/2 William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes
• League Two (posted 28/7/24) - MK Dons outright 9/1 Livescore, 8/1 Bet 365, Coral, Ladbrokes (3 places, 1/4 odds), main each-way
  
• League Two (posted 28/7/24) - Bradford City outright 14/1 Bet 365, Betfred, 12/1 William Hill (3 places, 1/4 odds), smaller each-way
• League Two (posted 28/7/24) - MK Dons to be promoted 2/1 Paddy Power, Betfred, 15/8 Bet 365
• League Two (posted 28/7/24) - Bradford City top seven finish 6/4 Betfred, 5/4 Ladbrokes, Coral

Multi 1 (11.07/1 acca with Bet 365) (posted 4/8/24)

• Spurs top six finish (Premier League)
• Leeds to be promoted (Championship)
• Bolton top six finish (League One)
• MK Dons to be promoted (League Two)

Multi 2 (20.71/1 acca with Bet 365) (posted 4/8/24)

• West Ham top 10/top half finish (Premier League)
• Leeds to be promoted (Championship)
• Bolton top six finish (League One)
• MK Dons to be promoted (League Two)

Multi 3 (11.07/1 treble with Bet 365) (posted 4/8/24) - strong fancy

• Leeds to be promoted (Championship)
• Bolton top six finish (League One)
• MK Dons to be promoted (League Two)

Multi 4 (8.97/1 treble with Bet 365) (posted 4/8/24)

• Leeds to be promoted (Championship)
• Bolton top six finish (League One)
• Bradford City top seven finish (League Two)

Multi 5 (8.69/1 treble with Bet 365) (posted 4/8/24)

• Leeds to be promoted (Championship)
• Birmingham to be promoted (League One)
• MK Dons to be promoted (League Two)

Multi 6 (7.01/1 treble with Bet 365) (posted 4/8/24)

• Leeds to be promoted (Championship)
• Birmingham to be promoted (League One)
• Bradford top seven finish (League Two)

Multi 7 (20.95/1 treble with Bet 365) (posted 4/8/24)

• Sunderland top six finish (Championship)
• Bolton top six finish (League One)
• MK Dons to be promoted (League Two)

Multi 8 (24.3/1 treble with Bet 365) (posted 4/8/24)

• Leeds to be promoted (Championship)
• Bolton to be promoted (League One)
• MK Dons to be promoted (League Two)

Multi 9 (each-way double, 39.5/1 Bet 365, 3 places, 1/4 odds for both teams)

• Leeds outright (Championship)
  
• MK Dons outright (League Two)

 

Multi 10 (16.86/1 four-fold with Bet 365, 11.14/1 William Hill, 9.66/1 Coral)

• Arsenal without Man City (Premier League)
• Leeds to be promoted (Championship)
• Bolton top six finish (League One)
• MK Dons to be promoted (League Two)

Reasoning

Premier League (4/8/24)

Of all the divisions in England, the Premier League was the one in which I found it most difficult to find an angle at any sort of price.

Manchester City are the best team in the country and will almost certainly land another title if they are up for it. Pep Guardiola remains at the Etihad for now, as the club waits to hear their fate with regards to FFP breaches, but City have achieved everything possible under him and you wonder if a new project will be on his mind soon, for a fresh challenge. City are priced accordingly but the threat of a potential points deduction (if it were to come into play this season) means I can't even back City ante post.

If Arsenal signed Ivan Toney I’d be interested in taking a chance on them, but that move doesn’t look likely so deep into the summer, and I am not convinced Jesus and Havertz are strikers to win them a title. 

Liverpool are difficult to assess now Jurgen Klopp has left the club and cannot be recommended, especially after they took their foot off the gas last season. It looks like Salah may still be knocking around, even though he had been strongly linked with a big-money move to Saudi Arabia.

After the big three there are a host of teams seemingly battling it out for what is, more likely than not, a top four finish at best.

Chelsea finished well last season and may fare better under new boss Enzo Maresca, but until we've seen more of them in the flesh the question mark above their head remains - the were big underperformers for most of last season and their squad has been oversized. 

Man Utd's defensive xG numbers last year were horrendous and they must surely improve after a wretched 2023/24, but you get the feeling Ten Hag is only a slow start away from getting the bullet, as it seems their owners reluctantly kept him on after he won the F.A. Cup last term. Injuries to Hojlund and new French centre-back Yoro during their pre-season trip to America, even after the club replaced their physios this summer, have been early blows to their ambitions. 

I’ll be keeping an eye out for WEST HAM if Niclas Fullkrug’s move from Dortmund is completed. He impressed me at the Euros and would be joining Crysencio Summerville, the best player in the Championship last term, if he signs at the London Stadium, joining other impressive talent already at the club in the shape of Kudus, Paqueta and Bowen.

I contemplated backing the Hammers in the handicap market, likewise Crystal Palace, who improved under Oliver Glasner last term (although they could lose key men this summer with Guehi, especially, in demand, and with Eze also linked with a move elsewhere…..Olise has already left for Bayern), but my view wasn't strong enough to part with any cash and you are always vulnerable in the handicap market if one of the promoted sides hits the ground running and is getting lumps on the handicap. 

There is a 'without the big 7' market but Villa are a proper side under Unai Emery and would represent a big threat for West Ham (who are 6/1). I think 10/11 for West Ham to finish in the top 10 is fair, so I've had a little bit on them for that in a seasonal ante post accumulator. 

With no European football on the schedule this season and with Tonali back from his ban, Newcastle also entered my thoughts. Keeping hold of Bruno Guimaraes this summer has also been key for them. They were also on my shortlist for a bet of some sort but, in the end, I've maintained an xG element to my selection, to bang in a few multiples, and therefore SPURS are my bet - for a top six finish.

Ange Postecoglu’s men made a bright start to his tenure, winning eight of their first 10, with James Maddison in fine form, and they topped the table after matchweek 10. Although their form dipped later in the season (Maddison didn't look the same following his return from injury), with only two wins from their last six, their overall xG numbers were solid - ranking fourth for xGF and joint-fifth for xGA.

Maddison will have a point to prove, having failed to make Gareth Southgate’s England squad for the Euros, and if he's back to his brilliant best, Spurs will be one of the most flamboyant and exciting teams to watch this season.

Archie Gray has arrived from Leeds and Lucas Bergvall, another teenage midfielder, has arrived from Sweden. 

The key transfer for them this summer, if sealed, however, would be Bournemouth front man Dominic Solanke - scorer of 19 league goals last season - who has been strongly linked. There are rumours of a £65 million release clause - will Daniel Levy stump up the cash?

Spurs do already have Son, Richarlison, Werner, Johnson and Maddison on their books, but with a European campaign to juggle, another quality attacker to rotate can only be a good thing and Solanke would certainly be an upgrade on Richarlison, who has struggled to produce his Everton form since moving to London. 

I've banged them in a little acca for a seasonal interest across the divisions. They could finish anywhere between fourth and eighth - hopefully in the top six!

Premier League - additional bets (10/8/24)

I’ve backed WEST HAM on the handicap after the move for Fullkrug was completed last week. French centre-back Todibo has arrived this week on a season-long loan from Nice and Wan-Bissaka is due to complete a medical on Sunday. Their summer recruitment under new boss Julen Lopetegui looks decent.

I’ve also added a new multi including ARSENAL to win the Premier League without Man City. Bet 365 are as big as 4/5 (4/7 Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes) which seems very fair in a market in which Liverpool may prove the only realistic danger.

Championship (29/7/24)

LEEDS had plenty of turnover in their squad last summer as players looked to leave, following their relegation from the top flight, and it took a little while for things to settle down before they found their stride. 

However, Daniel Farke’s men will probably still be wondering how they didn’t go up, even after their tardy start, as they blew their title and automatic promotion hopes by dropping cheap points late in the season (a 1-0 home loss to Blackburn stood out as particularly damaging) and they were then outplayed by Southampton (who were a decent side based on xG in all fairness) in the playoff final, when they didn’t really turn up.

Leeds don’t do playoff finals very well but the good news for their fans is that the teams coming down from the Premier League this time don’t look as strong as Leicester were and they have a great chance of winning the league in 2024/25 and justifying favouritism. The bookmakers' ante post market leader has won this division four times in the last five years - Leeds (19/20), Norwich (20/21), Fulham (21/22) and last year (Leicester).

Archie Gray has moved to Spurs for big money but Jayden Bogle was swiftly brought in as his replacement. Rumours persist with regards to star man Summerville, who was left out of the squad for their recent friendly with Schalke, but Sammie Szmodics has been heavily linked with them after his stellar season at Blackburn. Ipswich are also chasing the Ireland international, but even if Leeds did miss out on their man, such is the size of their club, they aren’t going to be short of alternative options if they do end up having to replace Summerville.

Based on their xG in the second tier last year, the Whites ranked fourth on xGF and top of the pile for xGA, so Farke has a really strong base to work from this year in his second season in charge. They are my strongest ante post fancy across the divisions and if Szmodics were to end up at Elland Road, I’ll likely back them again.

A team who also ranked well on Championship xG during 2023/24 and who have the potential to perform much better than their outright odds of 25/1 imply is SUNDERLAND.

The Black Cats were only just behind Leeds for xGF (and ranked fifth) and they occupied the same position in the xGA standings even though they actually finished way down in 16th, seven points adrift of the playoffs. The underlying data suggests they don’t need to improve quite as much as their odds imply, to ruffle a few feathers this season.

The Mackems parted company with Tony Mowbray in December following a run of form which saw them win two in nine and slip to ninth. They’d enjoyed a superb season prior to that, though, and finished in the play-offs upon their return to the second tier, following their League One promotion in 2021/22.

I’m not quite sure why Michael Beale was identified as the right man to replace Mowbray but his tenure turned into a nightmare and he lasted just 12 games before he was sent packing in February.

Frenchman Regis Le Bris is in charge now, moving from Lorient in June, so fingers crossed he can get more out of the talented, but underperforming, group.

It made me take note that Jobe Bellingham supposedly rebuffed interest from the Premier League this summer to continue his stay at the Stadium of Light and there has been further good news for Mackems fans in the last week, with centre-back Dan Ballard signing a new deal.

Winger Ian Poveda has arrived from Leeds on a free transfer and although Ipswich have been linked with star winger Jack Clarke, who would be missed if he were to go, a goalscorer from France has been strongly linked.

The club have used the loan market superbly in recent years - the likes of Amad Diallo and Ellis Simms spring to mind - so they may well pull another rabbit out of the hat if needed before the transfer window closes.

League One (1/8/24)

Portsmouth were 10/1 and fourth in the ante post betting behind Derby, Bolton and Barnsley when landing the League One title last term and, in the process, extended the iffy record of favourites in this division. In the last decade only Wolves (13/14) and Sheffield United (16/17) have justified their position at the top of the betting and, on top of that, only Blackburn (17/18, 2nd), Sheff Wed (22/23, third)) and Derby (second) last year have finished in the top three to reward each-way support.

The question, then, is whether it is worth siding with Birmingham City, who are 2/1 favourites in an outright market in which they are betting 10/1 and bigger the remainder.

Blues may well be a club who are capable of bucking the trend as, with their wealthy American owners, they are splashing the cash for fun this summer and have brought in nine new faces at the time of writing, including Charlton's Alfie May, who won the League Two golden boot last season.

Marc Leonard, who has experience of the division from loan spells at Northampton, has just signed from Brighton, 'keeper Bailey Peacock-Farrell joins from Burnley and a seven-figure fee was paid to Hearts for Alex Cochrane. Their net has been cast further across Europe, too, with Emil Hansson, Willum Willumsson and Christophe Klarer arriving from the Netherlands and Germany.

The new man in charge is Chris Davies, who was brought to the club from his role as assistant at Tottenham. Perhaps the owners were inspired by the success of Kieran McKenna at Ipswich, with this appointment. 

I have decided to cover Birmingham for promotion in some of my cross-league accumulators at a shade of odds on, but I aren't rushing to back them in the outright market. It is possible it may take a few games for the new coach to find his feet and given the scale of the summer rebuild, it could be that they don't win the division quite so easily as the odds suggest. 

In terms of alternative bets in the division, I did consider newly relegated Huddersfield, who slipped through the trap door on the final day and have appointed Michael Duff as their new boss. 

Duff did good things at Cheltenham and Barnsley, and even though things didn't work out at Swansea more recently, he looks the right man to kick the Terriers back into shape. The loss of a couple of key men (Jack Rudoni has signed for Coventry back in the Championship and Sorba Thomas has just joined French side Nantes on loan) offput me slightly, however.

I think Town will be thereabouts, but I just decided to stick with an xG-based pick, in keeping with my approach in the other divisions. 

Both Peterborough and BOLTON fared respectably as a result and came into calculations, but with Peterborough also losing key men (left back Harrison Burrows has joined Sheffield United in the Championship and centre-half Ronnie Edwards has been snapped up by Premier League Southampton), when they already looked 'weaker' defensively than offensively based on the numbers, I've come down on Bolton - for the second season running.

I am still a little miffed they fluffed their lines last season and allowed Derby into the second automatic promotion spot behind Portsmouth. A bad run between February and April saw them lose key ground in their pursuit of the leaders, but they still had a solid season overall under Ian Evatt, under whom they'd also finished in the play-offs in 2022/23 and won the 2023 Papa John's Trophy. 

Ranking third on xGF and fifth for xGA in League One last term, there is a solid base from Evatt to work on as he looks to flush last season's disappointing play-off final performance against Oxford (lost 2-0) out of their system (they failed to register a shot on target). The approach seems to have been adding a bit more depth to certain areas, rather than looking for a complete overhaul, this summer.

Ageing forwards Cameron Jerome and Jon Bodvarsson were not on the club's retained list this summer and have been moved on as Evatt bids to freshen up his attacking options. 

Experienced midfielder Scott Arfield, once of Rangers, returns from a stint in the MLS, and his experience could prove key in midfield when the promotion chase hots up in the New Year. 

Fellow midfielder Klaidi Lolos joins from Crawley, the surprise package in League Two last season, while promising centre-back Chris Forino has crossed the division and heads north from Wycombe. 

Injuries didn't help Bolton last term and losing first choice 'keeper Nathan Baxter for a good chunk of the season wasn't a help. Their backup stopper, Joel Coleman, didn't rip up any trees, so it is perhaps notable that Luke Southwood has now been brought in from Cheltenham to strengthen their options between the sticks.

Despite still having Dion Charles (netted 21 last season) on the books, it would be good to see Jerome and Bodvarsson replaced in the squad, and maybe they may dip into the loan market closer to the start of the season, when the bigger clubs have a better idea on their pecking orders within their squads.

All that said, it looks like Hungarian international Szabolcs Schon (a product of the academy at Ajax) is set to sign, which strengthens their left-hand side (plays as a wing-back). The club have also been strongly linked with Kilmarnock's Danny Armstrong who, if signed if the clubs can agree a fee, would freshen up their right side.

It's a boom or bust season for Evatt, really, as the natives are growing a bit restless. It is possible Birmingham could blow the division apart but I've backed Bolton for promotion and hope they'll be in the chasing pack at worst and maybe even in with a shot of the title themselves if they can avoid the injury issues of last term. 

League Two (28/7/24)

I was mad keen on Stockport last season and not so keen on my own side, BRADFORD CITY, but with Mark Hughes gone and with key developments having taken place off the pitch since the spring, perhaps this could be the year that the perennially disappointing Bantams finally come good - so I do actually recommend backing us as one of my bets in League Two this year!

If I take off my rose-tinted specs for a minute and look at the xG from League Two last year, Bradford were ranked seventh for xGF and fifth for xGA. They ended up finishing ninth, one point out of the playoffs, after winning five of their last six matches and ending the campaign as the form team in the division over the last six games.

It was a rollercoaster season along the way, though. After being beaten in their 2022/23 playoff semi-final by Carlisle, Mark Hughes decided to change his whole set up last summer and the new formation switch essentially backfired. A slow start to the campaign saw Hughes fired on 4th October, with Bradford City stranded in 18th, and it wasn't until 6th November that his eventual replacement, Graham Alexander, was appointed, following a protracted recruitment process.

It was a tough job for Alexander to take on mid-season, with growing discontent among the fanbase due to the lack of visibility of the absent owner and due to the lack of footballing expertise in the boardroom. There was little scope to strengthen a bloated squad in January and Alexander had to do the best with what he'd inherited. As discontent between the fans and board grew, results on the pitch seemed to suffer.

Fan protests started to take place in March, not long after a petition was sent to the owner Stefan Rupp, in Germany, demanding his departure. Rupp acknowledged the concerns of the fans, promised he'd take on a more active role, and promised investment in the budget, as well as revisiting the possibility of buying back the ground at the end of the forthcoming expiry of a 25-year lease, which has hamstrung the club ever since its slide from the Premier League, down the Football League. Things seem to have been nipped in the bud before they spiraled out of control - helped, undoubtedly, by a coinciding winning run on the pitch, which served to quieten down the noise!

With some of the off-the-field concerns seemingly allayed, at least for the time being, Bradford's results almost instantly picked up following Rupp's rallying call, via a press release, in March.

One of the main reasons the future looks brighter at Valley Parade is that the club appointed former Wigan chairman David Sharpe as Head of Football Operations in April. One of the gripes of the disgruntled Bradford fans had been that CEO Ryan Sparks lacked a football background and there was a lack of football expertise in the club at executive level to sound out Alexander and his assistant, Chris Lucketti. Hopefully Sharpe's input will benefit the club, as he was highly regarded at Mansfield and was credited with a lot of the work put in place prior to Nigel Clough's side securing promotion from this division last season.

Going back to those xG numbers, Bradford need to improve their goal output this year if they are to emerge as genuine promotion contenders, but the return to fitness of Alex Pattison and Jake Young will both help in that respect, and it was a relief for all Bantams fans to see Jamie Walker and local lad Bobby Pointon, who was badly underused by Graham Alexander when he first took over from Hughes, pen new deals this summer. Both are creative players who are unstoppable on their day.

Young fell out of favour with Hughes and was loaned out to Swindon for the first half of last season. He went on a hot scoring run and was second-top scorer in the division with 16 when he was recalled to Valley Parade in January (by then Alexander had then taken over). He could potentially chip in with goals, but Andy Cook remains at the club having won the League Two golden boot only two years ago, while Calum Kavanagh impressed after his January arrival from Middlesborough and is one to keep an eye out for this term.

With regards to Jake Young, the problem Bradford had with him last year was that Michael Flynn had been playing him with an injury at Swindon and he then only played only four times for City following his recall, before his season ended for good (due to injury) in February. 

If Young gets a good pre-season under his belt then he's effectively like a new signing, and Pattison, too, is another who can help improve the side's goal output. He didn't feature after Christmas after his own injury woes, but had left a good impression up to that point, following his summer arrival from Harrogate.

Tyreik Wright returned on loan from Plymouth mid-way through last season and was deployed as a left-wing back during the final weeks of the season. He's now made his move permanent, returning to the club at which enjoyed a successful loan spell from Aston Villa during 2022/23. 

The other notable piece of summer business for Bradford has been the arrival of Antoni Sarcevic from Stockport. The experienced midfielder has been promoted from this division five times with Plymouth (twice), Fleetwood (under Alexander), Bolton and, last season, Stockport, and adds a winning mentality to the side, as well as a decent goal output. 

It looks like there has been a deliberate attempt to improve the mentality of the players in the squad during the recruitment drive spearheaded by Sharpe this summer, and Aden Baldwin (Notts County), Neill Byrne (Stockport) and Callum Johnson (Mansfield) are also players who have experienced promotion fairly recently, and can hopefully impart that mentality on the group.

If there is a potential weakness in this Bradford squad it would be that the defensive personnel look like they are going to be reshuffled given the summer business, and so there could now be a greater emphasis on playing out from the back. It could be that some of the defensive solidity from last season is sacrificed, but, all things considered, I think the 14/1 outright is a backable each-way price.

With regards to the rest of the division, Port Vale seem to be giving Darren Moore plenty of backing and have brought in a raft of players as they look to improve upon a poor end to 2023/24 in League One, which ultimately saw them relegated. 

Salford, now managed by Karl Robinson, are another side who have repeatedly underperformed in League Two, but they have also made some interesting summer recruits and may be set for an improved year.

Gillingham splashed a bit of cash last year and will be hoping for better this time, and Chesterfield, who walked the National League last year (12 points clear), will hope to emulate Wrexham (and promoted sides from the National League in general) and go back-to-back. They, too, are towards the front of the betting.

Doncaster ended the season much stronger than they started it and with Billy Sharp returning 'home' and joining from Hull, after an earlier stint in America, you'd have to respect them this season.

Carlisle splashed plenty of cash in a desperate attempt to survive in League One, and although things just didn't click for them last term, they are dropping into a weak division this time and cannot be ruled out either.

However, the other side I am expecting a good season from, and have also backed alongside Bradford (actually as my main bet), is MK DONS. 

Mike Williamson took over from Graham Alexander in mid-October and guided them to a fourth-placed finish in his first season in Football League management (had previously gained plenty of admirers for his work at Gateshead in the National League). 

Ranking fifth best on xGF and joint-seventh best for xGA last year, MK Dons were, however, surprisingly taken apart by Crawley in their play-off semi-final last season.

You never quite know if there will be a hangover from that 8-1 aggregate shocker, but in his first pre-season at the club, Williamson has done plenty of business and perhaps that can keep things fresh for the new campaign ahead.

Ironically, one of the architects of their playoff demise, Crawley captain Liam Kelly, has jumped ship and signed for an undisclosed fee. 

There have been 10 arrivals so far at the time of writing, including Canadian 'keeper Tom McGill, who joins on a season-long loan from Brighton after returning from the Copa America, and striker Callum Hendry (son of Blackburn legend Colin), who bagged 21 in 50 starts in this division for Salford (and 16 sub apps) and has signed for an undisclosed fee.

I've backed both Bradford and MK Dons outright for now and also backed Bradford for a top seven finish and MK Dons to be promoted. I'll be adding both sides in some cross-league accumulators, too, when the other divisions have been previewed....

More bets to follow in the weeks ahead.....

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