Eurovision 2024 (Malmo)
Ante post picks
5th May 2024
- Italy outright 5/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Betfred, each-way (4 places) - main bet
- Belgium outright 125/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, 100/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred small each-way (4 places)
- Belgium top 10 finish (in Grand Final) 5/4 William Hill
Bets before SF2
09 May 2024
- Switzerland to win SF2 3/1 Bet 365 - solid single
- Double on Belgium & Austria to qualify from SF2 (pays just short of 4/5 with Paddy or 4/6 with Coral)
- Belgium top 10 finish in the main final on Saturday 9/4 Paddy Power
- Italy outright 20/1 Bet 365 (4 places) - solid each-way
Bets Before Grand Final
11th May
- Italy outright 35/1 Bet 365, EW (4 places)
- William Hill #Your Odds special - Italy top 5, Israel & Austria top 10, 17/2 - small bet (Austria far from assured)
- William Hill #Your Odds special - Croatia to win, Italy top big five, 7/2
- William Hill #Your Odds special - Croatia, Switzerland & Israel all top five, 1/2 - strong fancy
- Coral Eurovision special - Croatia & Switzerland Top 5, Ireland, Ukraine & Italy Top 10, Evens - strong fancy
- Coral Eurovision special - Switzerland Top 3, Ireland Top 5, Austria Top 10, 12/1 - small bet
Ante post preview
6th May 2024
Sweden, represented by Loreen with Tattoo, justified strong ante post favouritism when holding off a spirited challenge from fan favourite Finland in last year’s final.
This year, however, the competition looks much more open and I’ve been inclined to chuck a few quid on one of the outsiders at the ante post stage.
That outsider is BELGIUM, who can be backed around 280.0 and 270.0 on the exchanges or at 125/1 to 100/1 with the fixed odds firms.
Singer Mustii is a Belgian actor/singer/songwriter who is a judge on Drag Race Belgique - so he is well known in the Eurovision community.
His entry, Before The Party’s Over, is a really classy entry that, not for the first time from Belgium, reminds me of a James Bond theme tune.
The song starts slowly but builds up to an epic ending in the final minute - if Mustii can nail the ‘before the party is over’ notes in that final minute, against a backdrop of decent staging, then he could attract jury votes and might outrun his huge odds.
Belgium are performing 12th (of 16) in the running order on Thursday in semi-final 2, either side of two more upbeat entries (Georgia and Estonia), so hopefully that helps them stand out.
The song reminds me of Arcade, the 2019 winner for the Netherlands, so fingers crossed Mustii delivers his entry as well as Duncan Laurence did for their neighbours four years ago and they have a safe passage to the final. I’ve seen clips from the live rehearsals and also a live performance he did on the Belgian TV series of The Voice recently, and the bloke can sing.
I’ve had a small each-way bet at 125/1, nibbled the fancy exchange outright prices, and then had a bit on top 10 finish in the main final at 5/4 (William Hill) to cover those other stakes.
It seems like there are a few popular novelty entries this year - Croatia’s Rim Tim Tagi Tim and the Netherlands entry, Europapa, could fare well in the televote, while Finland’s Windows95man is a daft entry that, if it qualifies for the final, will also raise a few smiles.
Croatia are the outright ante post favourites and their catchy entry and quirky staging will stick in people’s minds, but they’ve been top of the betting for while and it is possible they’ve peaked too early.
For my main bet, I’ve had a solid each-way single on ITALY, who are 5/1 with four places, as I think they might grab a few televotes (without winning the televote) but, at the same time, could outscore those aforementioned ‘fun’ entries in the Jury vote.
Anything that Italy send to the competition has qualified through their competitive National selection process, Sanremo, which is held in February and was won by Angelina Mango with La noia this year.
The song is probably best described as being quirky pop but Angelina makes the song and is captivating with her costume, hair, movements on stage and her a capella segment highlights her superb voice.
The staging is excellent and I think she will be rivaling France and Switzerland to win the Jury vote. If she finishes top three in the Jury vote and is solid in the televote then she’s going to be firmly in the mix on Saturday.
As she represents one of the ‘big five’ nations she has already qualified for the final so there is no danger of non-qualification this week.
Further previews to follow for the semis this week…..
Semi Final 1
7th May 2024
The first of the semi-finals takes place tonight (BBC One, 8 pm) and it looks a match between odds-on (4/9) favourites Croatia, with their catchy entry from Baby Lasagna, and the solid Ukraine entry. However, the market has factored in both of their chances accordingly.
The market movers after dress rehearsals yesterday were Ireland, with their wacky gothic song from Bambie Thug, Doomsday Blue, seemingly catching the eyes and ears of those in attendance.
Ireland have sent a number of limp, tame entries that have failed to qualify in recent years, but whether you love or hate the song, Bambie Thug is certainly striking and memorable so, on that basis alone (even before factoring the support of the LGBTQ community), they look to be sailing through this time.
It is worth remembering that the EBU changed the qualification rules last year and the Jury no longer score the dress rehearsals as they have in the past - qualification from the semis is now determined solely on the basis of a televote on the night. Striking and memorable entries should come to the fore.
This year the big five and last year’s winner (Sweden) will be performing in the semis too - even though they’ve qualified already. In the past video clips were aired.
With that cleared up, is there a chance of any shocks?
Cyprus’ catchy pop entry, Liar, opens the show. It’s a radio-friendly, upbeat, number with good staging. Cyprus must be frustrated they are opening the show, rather than coming on towards the end of the running order, but the song is good enough so they might scrape through and I’ve resisted the urge to back them at 7/2 not to qualify (Paddy Power) from their bad draw.
I’m not a fan of the entry from Australia this year and the 11/10 for them not to qualify would have been tempting were it not for their good draw (13 of 15).
It’s looking to me like there just isn’t really a bet in this semi. Croatia should beat Ukraine but odds of 4/9 aren’t appealing and there’s no market in the semis for a straight-forecast (there will be in the final).
PaddyPower do let you multi up ‘to qualify’ picks into an acca for tonight but the ‘bankers’ are prohibitively priced. For me I think Ireland, Ukraine and Croatia are bankers to qualify.
On the basis of their draws, Portugal, Azerbaijan and Luxembourg will be hopeful of progressing, while Lithuania and Cyprus send good enough entries to overcome low draws. Poland’s catchy pop entry also surely progresses. That would potentially leave a final (10th) spot up for grabs….maybe Australia (from their draw) could be battling it out with Finland’s Windows95man, whose novelty entry No Rules has encountered issues in rehearsals (not hitting the notes, apparently) but is daft enough to be remembered by televoters - this result is purely televote based now after all.
Conclusion: I’m sitting it out for betting purposes tonight but fascinated to see how Ireland get on.
Semi Final 2
9th May 2024
Croatia produced a superb performance in the first semi-final on Tuesday and fully justified their position at the top of the market - they have been cut from 9/4 into odds on to win the entire competition since the programme aired.
There were solid performances from Ukraine and Lithuania, though the major improver looked to be Ireland, who secured their place on Saturday's final with their gothic witch entry from Bambie Thug.
Luxembourg, competing at Eurovision for the first time since 1993, were one of the the last qualifiers announced on the night (although they don't announce qualifiers in any particular order) and Finland and Cyprus were among some of the others to progress.
Poland will be disappointed to be heading home, while Azerbaijan were also dumped out. It wasn't a great surprise to see Australia fall by the wayside, however, and with their contract with the EBU up after this year, it remains to be seen for now whether they will be returning next year.
Onto the second semi-final we go tonight, which kicks off shortly on BBC One (8 pm). I can't wait for tonight's show as several of my favourite songs from this year's competition are taking to the stage - including Belgium, Italy (my two ante post bets) but also Austria and the Netherlands. Just as importantly, there also looks to be bets to be had tonight, unlike on Tuesday.
For all I like the Netherlands entry, Europapa, I am surprised to see it is 1/2 to win tonight's semi. Performed by Joost, the song was released to plenty of fanfare due to its daft video, and while it is certainly a catchy song and an upbeat studio track, I am not quite so sure it translates quite as well on stage. The sad ending to the song ends the three minutes on a sombre note too....basically I want to take them on to win the semi tonight given they are so short.
SWITZERLAND are the standout challengers to win tonight's semi for me. Nemo's entry, The Code, is on early in the night, but it is 11/4 in the outright winner competition (second favourite to Croatia). Netherlands are 28/1 and drifting in the main market, yet they are odds on to win the semi tonight (1/2) and Switzerland are 3/1 ish (Bet 365) to win the semi tonight?
The reason for that is that tonight's semi is score purely on a televote, whereas the final will incorporate a judge score as well, and Switzerland will do well with the juries (not so much the case for the Netherlands). However, I still think The Code is different to the other songs in this semi and the rap bit at the start is catchy and will win them televotes tonight.
There has been controversy this week surrounding Israel (being ignored by some, booed by others, and there have been pro-Palestinian flags sighted at various points), but let's not get into politics here. Israel have sent a good song and it will have its supporters (while also being well drawn tonight), but I just don't think it has the edge the Swiss entry has. They are 6/1 to win tonight.
I love the AUSTRIA floor-filler We Will Rave, which looks great on stage with all of the lasers, and I've backed them in a double to qualify with BELGIUM (pays just short of 4/5 with Paddy or 4/6 with Coral). It goes without saying I am hoping for a big performance from Mustii for Belgium as we are on the Belgians outright (EW). I have gone in again for them to finish top 10 tonight now they are 9/4. Before The Party's Over is on 14th of 19, which is a decent slot, but I aren't rushing to back this one to win the semi tonight, given only televotes contribute towards the placings tonight and I think he is a performer who will do best with the juries in Saturday's final. I still think he will get enough televotes to qualify, though, so they'll do for a 'qualification' double.
Italy, France and Spain are the acts from the big five to perform, even though they are already qualified for the final. France's is a powerful song, Mon Amour, that is also expected to do well with the juries, but let's hope Slimane (no, not the former Leicester striker), is outdone by Angelina Mango, both tonight and on Saturday, for Italy. Neither are included in the vote tonight, they are effectively just rehearsals, but it would be good to see Angelina turn in a good display and get their odds moving back in the right direction - given the strength of support for Croatia you can back Italy at 20/1 outright now with 4 places (I have tipped them up on the service in a small multiple this morning). I have topped up my single stakes on ITALY again (new bets listed at the top).
Malta is an upbeat opener to kick off the show on a positive note and get the juices flowing. I hope they go through as a surprise qualifier (7/2), although they are unfancied to qualify according to the market, like Czechia, even though both songs are ones I'd like to see progress. I'd say Greece, Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands, Israel and Belgium are the bankers to qualify tonight, and I think Austria will hopefully get enough support to join them.
That then leaves three remaining qualification spots, which the market suggests should be filled by Armenia, Estonia and one other.
Bring on the show!
Grand Final
11th May 2024
There has been unprecedented drama at Eurovision in the last 24 hours and there has been carnage in the betting markets as the Netherlands have been disqualified and several other countries have threatened to boycott.
The drama surrounds the participation of Israel, given the current political situation. After Israel’s semi-final on Thursday, the Italian TV station Rai accidentally released the Italian televote figures from the semi that night, and Israel accounted for a whopping 39% of the televote. Israel’s outright odds collapsed from around 33/1 and they are around 5/2 now.
It remains to be seen whether such tele voting figures can be replicated across Europe tonight but it does seem there is potentially a big movement to try get Israel to be announced the winner if so!
An Israel winner would be viewed as a disaster for the EBU, however, given the current war in the middle east, and there is a school of thought that the only way that will be prevented from happening is if ante post favourites Croatia win tonight.
Croatia was going to be a big televote song, anyway, and with the EBU now disqualifying the Netherlands, perhaps Croatia can now soak up even more support. Croatia will essentially need a bigger score with the juries than Israel - considerably so - if they are to prevail overall on the night, so it tees the night up for some fantastic drama.
That said, it tempers enthusiasm from a betting perspective for the outright market and it has distorted the prices, with many of those in contention for 4th to 10th backable at huge EW prices.
I’ve decided not to get too heavily involved tonight in the end as my attempts to get Croatia onside in multiples failed and I missed the fancy ante post prices. I think Croatia will win but aren’t lumping on at odds on given the magnitude of the Israel televote support (in Italy at least) in the semi.
In the outright market I’ve had a little more (again) on ITALY at 35/1 with Bet 365, who are four places. I think the song will do well with the juries and pick up enough support to be in the mix for a top end finish.
I think Switzerland will be top three with Croatia and Israel, as per the market, and Ireland (who send their strongest entry for years) and Austria are two I think are in top 10 contention. The latter are 4/1 or so for a top 10 finish on the exchanges, and while Kaleen’s vocals won’t be the strongest on the night, they have bagged a good slot in the running order, and a Euro bop to close the night might attract televote support, so I’ve banged them in a few small stakes specials.
Ukraine and France are others expected to be in the hunt for top 10 finishes though Ukraine haven’t been given a good draw (would have liked for top five otherwise) and France apparently performed badly in the jury show yesterday (on which jury scores are made), so Slimane will be looking to bounce back tonight. I hope Italy pip them in the ‘top big five market’ in one of those specials.
Hopefully its a fun night, but its not going to be a big punting night for me this year given the Israel situation and knock on effects its had in the betting. I’ve backed Italy several times as they continued to drift (perhaps foolishly!) and now I’ve also placed those specials to small stakes mostly, bar the 1/2 and Evs specials, for a punting interest in the evening.
