Grand National 2024 preview
GRAND NATIONAL (4.00 Aintree, Saturday)
With the recent modifications to the Grand National, with the reduced distance, less-taxing fences and now smaller field size (among other revisions), the nature of the race is changing, and more and more novices/lighter raced types stand a better chance than they did in the past, when experienced old boys with plenty of jumping experience often came to the fore.
RACE SUMMARY
Of those who are at the front of the market, I prefer MAHLER MISSION and MEETINGOFTHEWATERS most, but can see the arguments for backing LIMERICK LACE, Vanillier and CORACH RAMBLER, too. I Am Maximus and Panda Boy are two I think might be a little bit short in the betting at present, but I respect their chances. I don't like Kitty's Light or Mr Incredible.
With regards to backing something each-way at bigger odds, I thought CHEMICAL ENERGY and STATTLER were perhaps the most interesting from that odds bracket. Both come with risks attached, as you'd expect if backing 50/1 shots. Chemical Energy lacks a run and Stattler jumped poorly at Punchestown last time and needs the change of scenery to liven him up. However, they might have a squeak of landing some place money if some of the principals misfire.
Most online firms are paying six places each-way (Betfred are paying seven). Chemical Energy isn't overly raced and could be on a fair handicap mark based on his form with Mahler Mission. Stattler has back class and is on the decline, but he's double the price of several others with a similar sort of profile.
Of the outsiders, I don't rate the chances of many of them at all. If you put a gun to my head then, at 100/1, FAROUK D'ALENE could potentially find a bit of improvement for a stiffer test. He enjoys testing ground and his dam is related to a 4m-winning chaser, so it isn't beyond the realms of possibility he could improve for an extreme stamina test. In order to back him, however, you'd have to forgive him a terrible run at Cheltenham last month....which is why he's 100/1.
Thoughts on each runner (by odds bracket) are below:
Market leaders (20/1 and under)
Mahler Mission (12/1) is a long-term fancy of mine, who I first backed in February. I backed him for the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) at Newbury in November and he ran a big race in second behind Datsalrightgino, despite losing his front shoes.
He looked like he was going to beat Gaillard du Mesnil in last year's National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over 3m6f on (soft ground) until falling two out, and he's otherwise been a sound jumper.
John McConnell has laid him out for the National and avoided the temptation to run him over hurdles in February to keep him fresh for this. He seems really happy with him, as per his interview earlier in the week.
He's rated 7lb higher than when he last ran at Newbury but I'm hoping his freshness counts for plenty and he can improve for the step up in trip.
Meetingofthwaters (12/1) crept onto my radar when it looked like the ground was going to be testing a few weeks ago. He travelled powerfully through soft ground when striking at Leopardstown in taking fashion over Christmas.
The last three winners of this race were rated 146, 147 and 146 and he's 2lb well in, racing off 147 here, after a good run in the Ultima, a Cheltenham Festival race in which recent Grand National winners Noble Years and Corach Rambler finished ninth and first in prior to their Aintree successes in 2022 and 2023, respectively. He looks ideally positioned in the handicap with his mark.
He was bought by JP McManus prior to running in the Ultima, and given that race has proven a graveyard for Irish-trained runners (bizarrely), in a Festival Irish raiders otherwise tend to dominate these days, I just wondered if he was really purchased by JP McManus with the Grand National in mind and the Ultima may just have been a run to qualify him (horse now need to have run in a minimum of six chases under Rules to be eligible... that was his sixth run).
He looked to be tanking along in the Ultima two out and although he couldn't land a blow on the front pair in the closing stages, he kept on in the finish and shaped like he'd handle a step up in trip. We now get to test that theory......
I was expecting he might be the pick of Mark Walsh of the JP McManus contingent, but Walsh instead has elected to ride Gavin Cromwell's Limerick Lace (10/1), who has been subsequently smashed from 25/1 into 10/1 on the eve of the race. Limerick Lace is a relative of Inothewayurthinking, who stayed well to win the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and followed up in a 3m1f Grade 1 at Aintree on Thursday (and did so in style). She has apparently been backed by JP, hence the recent plunge, as she bids to follow up her Mares' Chase victory at Cheltenham. She has to be respected, given the strength of the market support in recent days.
Meetingofthewaters is partnered by Danny Mullins. Having Mullins on top is no bad thing as he was on him at Leopardstown in December, when he absolutely wazzed up and beat Panda Boy (11/1). Given Panda Boy has been well backed into 11/1 for the National, I think Meetingofthewaters (who was 16/1 to 14/1 when originally backed) was (and still is at 12/1) a fair price.
He'll be creeping into contention late on from off the pace and this track could suit him better than the New course did in the Ultima. Hopefully he settles well and his stamina holds out.
In terms of the other runners towards the front of the betting, I was impressed by Corach Rambler (8/1), naturally, when he was third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. That form was boosted by Gerri Colombe (second) landing the Bowl here on Thursday and he's officially 3lb well in.
Although there was an overreaction to that last performance in the market initially (you could get 12/1 as he crossed the line at Cheltenham but it was cut before most could react and he has been trading at 6/1 in recent weeks), he has drifted back out in recent days and 8/1 is palatable.
He's 13lb higher than when successful 12 months ago, though, and it will take a mighty effort to actually follow up. I hope one of my main picks proves better handicapped, but if you look at it from the point of view of Corach Rambler being only 1lb higher than Mahler Mission, he's still got a fair chance here.....and with him you know he has proven stamina for the trip.
Of the others, I respect last year's second Vanillier (12/1), who was second to Fairyhouse specialist (all three chase wins recorded there) I Am Maximus in the Bobbyjo after the weights came out. Strictly on that run, I Am Maximus (15/2) could still be fairly treated as he's officially 5lb well in here.
I Am Maximus won last year's Irish National (despite running in snatches) and he's the pick of Paul Townend, which has seen him backed into overnight favouritism. I just wonder if he might just find others better treated as, off 159, he is 10lb higher than when he won the Irish National and I wouldn't want to read too much into the bare form of the Bobbyjo given the small field size/possibility the second was having just a prep.
I am against Vanillier for win purposes just because I like to back horses running over the National fences for the first time, ideally, but I think he'll be on the premises even though up 4lb from 12 months ago. The Gavin Cromwell yard are superb target trainers.
I can see the angle with Panda Boy (11/1), who represents Martin Brassil, who won the race with Numbersixvalverde. I backed him when he ran over hurdles at Leopardstown last time (and for his previous run over fences when Meetingofthewaters travelled all over him at Christmas) and it looks like that was just a prep for this.
I just think, though, for main bet purposes, he doesn't really represent much value now given he's a shorter price than the horse who destroyed him at Leopardstown in December (even accounting for the fact he's 10lb better off now), Meetingofthewaters.
Kitty's Light (14/1) has been attracting support in the last week and while it would be a nice story for the Williams family and a distraction from reality (trainer's young daughter is currently fighting Leukemia), purely from a cold-hearted racing/form point of view, I think the ground might be slower than the horse ideally wants.
I don't trust Mr Incredible (14/1), who has ability and ran a blinder in the Midlands National, but who has already had a try at the National in the past (unseated at the second Canal Turn last year) and is quirky.
Minella Indo (18/1) and Delta Work (20/1) are both aged 11 now and horses who I'd have considered for the race before all of the race modifications, which may now suit the younger, improvers. Minella Indo is the pick of Rachael Blackmore and will attract backing on that basis, no doubt. Both cannot be ruled out of landing place money, but others appeal more to me based on their profiles.
Mid-priced runners (20/1 to 50/1)
Noble Yeats (25/1) looks handicapped to the hilt as a former (2022) winner (now rated 18lb higher) and, from a similar position in the market, Coko Beach is another I don't fancy. He didn't get home in the race last year and pulled-up. He was beaten 13 lengths by Chambard in the Becher over these fences earlier in the year and is rated only 1lb lower now. He's enjoyed a fine season, winning the Troytown prior to that, and then landing a cross-country race on his most recent start, so he might not have anything in hand of a mark of 161.
Galia Des Liteaux (28/1) ran a blinder in the Classic Chase at Warwick but she ran so badly at Exeter next time out, I am struggling to forgive her that. If the ground was bottomless she might have been tempting. She's been nibbled at in the last week anyway, so I feel the value has evaporated from her price.
I don't trust Capodanno's (40/1) jumping.
Foxy Jacks (40/1) is another switching from the Cross-Country scene. The 10-year-old is vastly experienced and doesn't fit the profile I'm looking for in the 'new' National.
Similar comments are applicable to Latenightpass (40/1), who has recently switched trainer and actually ran over hurdles (as a prep) following a huge run over the Cross-Country fences at Cheltenham in December (when trained by Dan Skelton).
Nassalam (40/1) produced an absolute monster of a performance to win the Welsh National in December. If he'd come into this race on the back of that run he'd have been one of the market leaders, but he bombed out in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and ran a wretched race - one I'm struggling to forgive. He could go well for a long way if the ground is still riding very slow, but winning this off a mark of 161, up 16lb from Chepstow, will be no easy task.
I can't see any angle into backing Adamantly Chosen (50/1). He's not an unexposed novice. He won an egg-and-spoon race at Down Royal last time. He's trained by Willie Mullins, which is where the positives end really. He was slaughtered by Meetingofthewaters at Leopardstown over Christmas. Not for me.
Ain't That A Shame (50/1) runs for a new owner (David Maxwell). He was going well in the race under Rachael Blackmore last year but didn't get home. There is no reason to think this year he'll run any different as his Thyestes win last time was over the much shorter trip of 3m1f, which is comfortably within his stamina limit.
Chemical Energy (50/1) has been off the track since finishing sixth in the Kerry National in September 2023. Prior to that he'd pulled up in the Irish National. It would take some performance from Gordon Elliott to get him back from a 206-day layoff to win this. That said, of the roughies, you can make a case for him based on his National Hunt Chase second to Gaillard du Mesnil (the race Mahler Mission fell in) last year as he has a little bit of form over 3m6f there and his handicap mark of 148 might be workable. He'd ideally prefer better ground but there are worse 50/1 shots in this line-up.
Galvin (50/1) unseated his rider at the first fence 12 months ago. He has good Cross Country form, chasing home Delta Work in the Cheltenham race in 2023 and he was a Grade 1-winning chaser at his peak, as well as landing the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in 2021, again underlining his stamina. He's another who doesn't fit the profile I'm looking for, though, while he'd ideally prefer better ground.
Roi Mage (50/1) ran well for a long way last year but didn't get home and faded into seventh. There is no reason why the 12-year-old should fare any better today.
Run Wild Fred (50/1) fell at the eighth fence two years ago and his recent form is even more uninspiring. He's not completed any of his last three runs.
Stattler (50/1) is the pick of Patrick Mullins of the Ronnie Bartlett-owned runners (over Galvin) and is another of the mid-price picks who merit consideration. He won the 2021 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and then last year was still running in the top Irish Grade 1s. Now aged nine, he's not up to the top level anymore, but he looked to need his comeback run at Punchestown in November and, like on his next start at Thurles, the trip was totally inadequate.
He didn't seem to like the banks at Punchestown when switched to the Cross-Country course, and it remains to be seen whether the National fences will prove to his liking. A mark of 158 leaves him vulnerable to improving novices but he has place claims at a price given his back-class and he's over double the price of Delta Work and Minella Indo.
Outsiders (bigger than 50/1)
Chambard (66/1) won over the National fences in the Becher earlier in the year but his apprentice rider is not claiming her usual 5lb here and he was beaten fair and square in the Ultima at Cheltenham. Difficult to fancy.
The Goffer (66/1) was sent off favourite for the Ultima, remarkably, on the back of winning a charity race, but he doesn't convince me he has the stamina for this assignment.
Glengouly (80/1) hasn't been seeing out his races when ridden prominently over shorter trips. He's lightly raced and one of Willie Mullins' runners, but it is difficult to see him winning a National in his current form.
Mac Tottie (80/1) won the Topham last year but that is over 2m5f and he's an exposed 11-year-old who has done his winning over distances less than 3m.
Eklat De Rire (100/1) pulled up in the Ultima, which is hardly the most convincing prep for this. He's trained by a master (Henry De Bromhead) but that's about all he has to recommend him.
Eldorado Allen (100/1) ran a good race in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in November (Mahler Mission second), keeping on in the finish into fourth. He's rated 1lb lower now and is having only his second run following subsequent wind surgery. Whether the surgery has worked, though, who knows; he pulled up in the Ultima last time, with his trainer reporting he'd made a respiratory noise.
Farouk D'alene (100/1) pulled up in the Pertemps Final, when he seemed to struggle off top-weight. Switches back over fences now. He is best in testing ground but, off a mark of 154, there surely have to be better treated rivals lurking further down the handicap.
That said, he might not be a forlorn hope for a place as he's moving up significantly in trip and his dam is related to a 4m-winning chaser. He just looks vulnerable for win purposes even if he is still in there fighting after the Elbow.
Minella Crooner (100/1) has run poorly all season, including when pulling up in the Ultima, and has little to recommend him. All of his five career wins have come outside of handicap company.
Janidil (125/1) is the rank outsiders and looks to have the lowest winning chance of the JP McManus contingent. Has been running over shorter trips, unsuccessfully, including when sporting his current headgear combination in the Stayers Hurdle last time, when he beat only one rival home. Had some decent chase form earlier in his career which means his mark is still rather high in this sphere. Needs to improve plenty for the extreme stamina test, which seems unlikely looking at his past efforts over 3m.
Good luck all!
