Eurovision 2018 - Grand Final Preview
First bets (posted 17:42, Thursday 10th May)
Poland to finish top 10 in the final (Bet 365, Betway, Marathon Bet, 10 Bet and Sports Pesa)
Bulgaria to win the final 22/1, each-way (Paddy Power, 5 places, 1/5 odds)
Further bets to follow before Saturday
As per the semi final two preview posted earlier in the week, I think there is potential for Poland to outperform market expectations with their song Light Me Up this year. I don't think they will necessarily win the competition, but I think they've been underrated in the betting.
Poland perform in the second semi final tonight (Thursday) and are now 1/4 to qualify.
There isn't any value in backing them at that price (unlike with the first semi, the qualification prices seem about right this time) but, as hinted at previously, it may be worth getting them onside in the top 15 and top 10 markets for the main final, on the assumption they will progress tonight, while their outright price is so big and keeping their price inflated in the place markets.
There is a lack of liquidity in the top 15 market now - the 3/1 flagged up previously has dried up, though Poland are still 10/1 with Bet 365, Betway, Marathon Bet, 10 Bet and Sports Pesa to make the top 10 and that looks worth a small interest in my opinion.
Ideally they could do with being handed a second-half draw (should they qualify, of course) but this is the feel-good song in the competition this year which I anticipate could be popular due to its 'Marshmallow'-sounding drop and I'd like to have a little wager on now anyway.
Bulgaria could benefit from the elimination of several rival Balkan nations in the first semi final on Tuesday when the voting takes place on Saturday and make some each-way appeal in the outright market with Paddy Power, who are offering five places EW.
Bulgaria don't know their specific position in the running order yet though they do know their eerie entry, Bones, will be drawn in the second half, which is an obvious plus.
Equinox's semi final performance was very good - it was strong vocally - and I hope they could do an 'Australia' - who were fancied ante post in the 2016 competition, drifted out after the semi finals, but were backed back in on the night and finished a gallant second to Ukraine to reward each-way support.