Northern Monkey Punter

2021 Review

The 2021 service covered the period between 1st December 2020 and 30th November 2021.

Steady start

The winter isn't a period of the year I traditionally expect to make much profit so a steady month in December 2020 to kick off the new service didn't come as a great surprise.

Winners included King Of The South (9/4), Dandy Spirit (9/4), Settle For Bay (6/1), The White Mouse (7/2), Lady Pendragon (5/1), Juyush (4/1), Aberama Gold (6/1), Spreadsheet (7/2), Canelo (5/1) and Furzig (11/4).

January was also a small losing month. We didn't stake heavily over the winter so our winners in January were again only small. They included Athmad (5/1), Scholastic (7/2), Revolutionise (5/2), Lihou (9/4), Presentandcounting (9/2), Equilateral (3/1), Crimewave (9/2) and Whatarm (3/1) as we made another small loss on the month.

February, too, was a losing month, although it was the month in which a lot of prep work was done for Cheltenham Festival (in March) and we lined up several nice ante posts so it at least served a purpose! 

In terms of actual monthly winners, they included Something Always (15/8), Dubai Future (3/1), Ecclesiastical (6/1), Two For Gold (9/2), Fred (5/1), Tartlette (5/2), One Hart (3/1) and Lord Riddiford (5/1). We ended February -20 pts down for the year.

Fantastic Festival (again)

We've had some superb Cheltenham Festivals over the years and ramp up our betting activity for the week with a plethora of singles, ante posts and multiples covering most of the races across the week. The 2021 was another brilliant one NMP members enjoyed winners advised at prices including 33/1, 25/1, 16/1 and 12/1! 

On Tuesday we had Appreciate It (11/8) and Shishkin (8/11) covered in winning multiples and although we missed out on 30 pt returns on my big ante post Ultima gamble, Happygolucky (20/1 into 10/3 fav), who finished second, and were also agonisingly denied a nice return off multiples involving Concertista, who was nutted on the line by Black Tears in the Mares' Hurdle, we did end the day on a high with Galvin (4/1) landing the NH Chase.

Wednesday was even better - we backed six of the seven winners and only Easysland (second) in the Cross Country prevented us from going through the card.

Bob Olinger (5/2) landed us a nice double when scooting clear in the Ballymore, then we landed the Coral Cup winner, Heaven Help Us, at 25/1 (SP 33/1). Monkfish delivering the goods in the Brown Advisory novices chase (7/4) landed us another little multiple, while we were on Put The Kettle On (12/1) in the Champion Chase, Sky Pirate in the Grand Annual (16/1) and Sir Gerhard at 4/1 ante post in the Champion Bumper. It really was a magical day for members and hearing about some of the multiple returns members have managed makes me very happy!

On Thursday we started slowly, with Envoi Allen (4/5) suffering a shock defeat when falling in the Marsh Chase.

Come On Teddy landed us some place money at 40/1 in the Pertemps Final, though, as did Sire du Berlais (8/1) in the Stayers' Hurdle, before The Shunter (7/2) won the Paddy Power Plate and Mount Ida (13/2), under a quite remarkable ride from Jack Kennedy, romped home in the Kim Muir, despite trading 1000.0 in running on Betfair at one point when dropping to the back of the field.

Friday, like Thursday, started slowly. We had a few more seconds when A Plus Tard (10/1) finished second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, while Elimay's (2/1) narrow defeat in the Mares' Chase denied us some nice ante post doubles. However, we did have a small bet on Colreevy (7/2) against our main bet in the latter race and ended the day on a high when Galopin Des Champs (25/1) landed the Martin Pipe.

All in all, we managed 13 of the winners over the course of the week (along with a number of placed efforts) and ended the Festival over +40 pts in profit!

Lacklustre Lincoln

We had a bit of a frustrating one in the opening weekend of the Flat season at Doncaster as our main ante post bet, Brentford Hope, failed to line up. Our second bet in the race, Danyah, finished placed but was too keen to trouble the winner. We did have a winner on the Sunday of the meeting though, with Throne Hall (7/2).

The first six weeks of the Flat season are traditionally the toughest, with horses still returning from winter absences, so April is usually a steady month for us while we assess the form. This April was no different and we made a negligible profit (+2 pts), with winners (mostly from the AW and jumps season Festivals) coming in the shape of Diligent Harry (9/4), Bangkok (5/4), Jabbarockie (5/1), Vanity Affair (5/1), Astro King (11/2), Livelovelaugh (15/2), Thyme Hill (11/4), Happygolucky (3/1), Overwrite (4/1), Came From The Dark (4/1), Brave Display (16/1), Alhaazm (4/1), Ventura Rascal (7/2) and Longlai (11/2). 

We had a couple of lovely multiples lined up which went astray - Burrows Saint, who ran so well for a long way in the Grand National, was one we had onside at prices as big as 12/1 in doubles with first-leg winners at 5/1, 5/2 and 3/1 and also in a treble with winning first and second legs at 5/2 and 3/1. He would have been a huge result if successful but, after trading as low as 6/5 in running on Betfair, he didn't see out the National trip and ended up placing in fourth.

Swimming in summer circles 

2021 was quite a unique year in a way as the months which immediately followed April were pretty uneventful. Usually, over the summer, we'd hit a purple patch, and sometimes even a losing run, but in May, June, July and August we were effectively treading water. 

Never at any point did it look like we'd incur heavy losses in that period, but we had some rotten bad luck with big bets at Royal Ascot and had a couple of lively multiples touched off which meant the cumulative profit and loss line, if plotted on a graph, would have been much flatter than normal.

The singles continued to amass regular profit all throughout the summer period, but, for several months, the multiples were eating into the profit generated from the singles. Things eventually corrected themselves multi wise, but following the multiples did test ones patience at times.

In May our winners included Lexington Dash (5/1), Zabeel Champion (3/1), Pale Iris (12/1), Jabbarockie (11/4), Ilaraab (5/1), Bedford Flyer (8/1), Jumby (11/4), Benadalid (9/2), Pendleton (9/2), Brentford Hope (11/4), Oscula (13/8), Pretty Boy Floyd (5/4) and Imperial Yellow (4/1). The most notable winner, though, was a strongly fancied bet on Fresh in a sprint handicap at Ascot. James Fanshawe's speedster yielded a double-figure profit for us after getting up in a tight finish at 7/1.

Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot takes centre stage in June and over the first five days most of our bets ran cracking races and went close to winning - but the difference between having placed horses and winners is huge for the profit and loss column.

On the Tuesday, Lope Y Fernandes (12/1), Eldrickjones (66/1), Extravagant Kid (18/1), and Cape Gentleman (10/1)/Elysian Flame (18/1) all ran superb races but placed without winning. Eldrickjones, one of the horses I have a syndicate share in through Nick Bradley Racing, looked somewhat unfortunate not to win the Coventry as he had been stranded down the middle of the track from his horror draw but comfortably outran his odds to finish second. 

Another horse who ran a blinder, only to be beaten by his draw, was Astro King in the Royal Hunt Cup on the Wednesday. We'd piled into him at 12/1 with a strong single (as well as multiples with a string of other placed selections as it happened) and while he beat everything drawn on the stands side, the field split into two and the race was won by a rival drawn on the far side of the track.

We also had Benaud (14/1) and Dig Two (9/1) placed on day two, with our sole winner Quick Suzy, who had been a secondary bet alongside my main fancy in the Queen Mary, Mas Poder (who finished in the rear and failed to give her running).

On day three (Thursday) of Ascot it was more of the same. River Liffey ran a superb race for us at 20/1 in the Britannia but had to be content with second - at those prices the difference between a winner and second is notable. We had another placed selection in the shape of Project Dante (7/1), although we did get another winner on the board via Surefire (8/1).

The Friday of Royal Ascot was a big day for me as I went down to watch two of my star syndicate performers, Oscula and Dandalla, compete. The problem was the torrential rain that came down on Thursday night and almost forced the meeting to be abandoned. Thankfully, the course passed a very late inspection as the anxious crowd gathered in the bar areas, although we came out on the wrong end of a field split, again, when Oscula ploughed a lone furrow down the stands' rail to finish third in the Albany, with the 1-2 racing down the middle of the track. 

Dandalla had lost her way earlier in the year but bounced back to pick up some black type by finishing fourth in the Commonwealth Cup. Sadly for us, as I'd backed her ante post on the service at 33/1, we didn't get paid out EW on fourth - just 1-2-3.

The Friday wasn't a bad day at all overall though, with Alenquer (9/4) and Significantly (12/1) both winning and making a soggy trip down to Berkshire, worthwhile, along with the fact it was great to see Oscula and Dandalla run so well, on the big stage, in person!

Classic fun

It wasn't the only good day out I had in June with my horses. I went down to Epsom on Oaks day (before Royal Ascot) to watch Oscula romp home at 15/2 for us in the Woodcote, while Mystery Angel was second to the classy Snowfall in the Oaks and ran a huge race at 50/1. Both horses relished the testing conditions and I had tipped up them both in a small each-way double to NMP members, so you can imagine the mid-race excitement when Mystery Angel kicked on for home turning in and had most of her rivals toiling in behind. She was actually well held by the winner come the finishing line, but what a thrill to have a Classic-placed runner all the same.

Other June winners included Croeso Cymraeg (5/1), Mitrosonfire (7/2), Atalis Bay (7/4), Chichester (9/2), Romantic Proposal (3/1), and Go Bears Go (7/1), although we ultimately paid the price for all of the placed horses in Royal Ascot and finished a very busy month -7 pts down. 

Delightful Danyah

 We did finally land a nice double in July when Danyah (8/1) landed the International Stakes at Ascot - we had him backed in a strong single and also in a double with 4/1 winner May Sonic and 11/8 winner Ventura Rascal so won the best part of 30 pts there. 

We made a small profit in July, with other winners arriving from Young Fire (7/1), Came From The Dark (4/1), Motakhayyel (10/1), Declared Interest (7/2) and Zarzyni (7/1). 

Blackrod (11/1) was a cracking winner for us at the July meeting at Newmarket, landing us just over +12 pts profit from a very strong single.

Not-so-Glorious Goodwood

In terms of Glorious Goodwood, Migration (7/2), Trueshan (15/8) and Aswan (10/1) were our only winners there this year. We usually fare much better at the Sussex meeting but many of our bets were placed without winning this time - Happy Power (14/1), Onassis (6/1), Aerion Power (13/2), Rhoscolyn (15/2), Elysian Flame (12/1) and Urban Artist (8/1) all falling into the latter category.

In August things kicked off in spectacular fashion on the first day of the month - a seemingly quiet Sunday. Current Option (7/1), Love Is Golden (11/4) and Bell Ex One (16/1) all won across the cards at Galway and Chester. Unfortunately we didn't have them lined up in multiples but 3/3 winning singles was nice nevertheless.

Raven's Ark (2/1), Tenaya Canyon (7/1) (in the controversial Racing League series), Goldie Hawk (2/1), Corazon (5/2), Sibaaq (5/2), Great Ambassador (5/2), Flaming Rib (18/1), Migration (4/1), Blackrod (6/1), Lezardrieux (4/1) and Kingson (9/2) were all winning singles in August, although we ended the month making a small loss. 

At this point of the year the 2021 service was showing a profit of +15 pts to best prices and -30 to worst prices. The singles had produced +38 pts profit to +2 pts profit up to then, while the multis had yielded a -23 pts (to best prices) to -32 pts (to worst prices) loss. However, anyone who had been following the selections, and understands horse racing and variance, could have predicted that we were due to cop a big multiple again soon........

A simply sensational September

I've run NMP since 2010 and I have never experienced a run of form as hot as that which we experienced in September. 

Rowan Day, who follows a number of betting services across all sports, including horse racing, and has vast experience reviewing hundreds of betting services and following the best ones as part of his tipster portfolio, said this about the NMP results in his betting diary blog series on the Smart Betting Club website in September....

"Across just Friday and Saturday last week, Northern Monkey achieved a profit that translated to a total bank growth of 108.82%. Just think about that for a minute. Two day’s racing. The bank more than doubled. That, is truly remarkable, incredible tipping, the likes of which quite frankly, I don’t think I’ve ever seen."

We had 24 winning singles in September and some monster doubles across not one, not two but three huge winning weekends.

I took a strong view on the Sprint Cup at Haydock and couldn't understand why Emaraaty Ana was priced at 25/1 after his excellent run in the Nunthorpe behind the smart Winter Power. We had a 0.75 pt EW single on him and also covered him in a small double with Top Secret (6/1), who won one of the TV races that same day at Ascot. He was backed into 11/1 at the off and caused a big upset in turning over the hot pot, Starman. He relished the return to 6f.

The following weekend we chopped it off with Hurricane Ivor (8/1) in the Portland Handicap. We had smashed the same horse to pieces in the Stewards' Cup, where the weather and ground turned against him, but on better ground at Doncaster he made no mistake and landed us a 1.5 pt single and two winning doubles with Kettle Hill (7/4) and Able Kane (7/1). 

The third leg of our red-hot spell came at Ayr's Western meeting. I had been planning to have a big bang on Dandalla, one of my syndicate horses, for weeks, and not only did we cash in on her winning on the Friday, when she sluiced up in a Listed race against her own sex and landed us a 1.5 pt bet at 9/1, we also had her doubled with Bielsa for the Ayr Gold Cup at 16/1. 

I was mad keen on Bielsa for the big sprint on the Saturday and had also doubled him with Lady Raeburn (2/1) and Ventura Rascal (5/1), both of whom are other horses I have a syndicate share in. Bielsa was also covered in multiples with Flint Hill (10/3), who won earlier in the week at Pontefract, and Hurricane Ivor (4/1), who followed up his Doncaster victory by winning at Pattern level at Newbury seven days later. 

If you haven't seen the Ayr Gold Cup race I would strongly recommend watching the replay as it was the most remarkable race. Rider Kevin Stott made a beeline for the stands' rail and attempted to make all, though he raced isolated and the rest of the field clustered on the other side of the track. It meant, with the field split, it was difficult to tell which side of the field was ahead throughout the contest, but when the camera angle straightened up inside the final 100 yards it finally became obvious we were ahead, the horse had bolted up, and we had chopped it right off. 

We landed a winning single which paid up to +18 pts profit and the returns from the doubles topped those returns up to around +100 pts profit. Yep, we completely filled the bookmakers in and won a full betting bank (and more) off Bielsa scoring!

The rest of our winners that month included Global Acclamation (7/1), Chalk Stream (13/2), Mondammej (13/2), Bergerac (9/1), Emeraty Hero (5/2), Knowing (4/1), Spantik (8/1), Chichester (17/2), Sister Lola (7/1), Turnpike Trip (3/1), Gnat Alley (2/1), Nomadic Empire (11/1) and Mews House (9/4). 

September saw us make +171 pts (to best prices) to +139 pts (to worse prices) profit from 107 pts staked. Just a reminder, we are betting out of a betting bank of 80 pts, with a staking scale of 0.25 - 3 pts (it was 3 pts MAX in 2021, but has since been lowered) and an average stake around 0.75 pts....and we made up to +171 pts in September having backed 24 winning singles and a plethora of multiples!!

I don't think we'll ever produce a set of results as hot as that on the service ever again but, by jove, did NMP members and I enjoy it. 

Given the number of times we were stitched up by field splits at Royal Ascot, there was an element of irony that we won big when eventually benefitting from a lopsided field split in the Ayr Gold Cup :-).

Several members contacted me to say they'd used their winnings to pay for holidays and one member even Tweeted the @NMPunter account with a photo as he raised a beer glass from his sun lounger to toast Bielsa! I did exactly the same and took the family to Spain for week in October. Thanks Bielsa (and Dandalla!).

Levelling up

The numbers suggested (based on the odds of the selections) we would have expected us to back 18 winning singles in September, and we managed 24, so it came as no surprise that in the spell that followed Bielsa, the results levelled off. The hot run couldn't go on forever and, as these things are cyclical, a losing run inevitably had to follow.

October thus saw us experience our heaviest losing month of the year; -22 pts to best prices and -25 pts to worst prices, from around 58 pts staked. I expected us to have the losing run so cut the staking scale to limit the damage, which is part of the reason why our turnover dropped dramatically (the other reason being there are fewer meetings at the end of the year too).

The selections didn't all actually run that badly in October and, as revealed to members in my end-of-month results update, the percentage of our bets which finished either first or second in October, when we lost -22 pts, was the same as September, when we made +171 pts. The crucial difference, though, was that the ratio of firsts : seconds reversed and it seemed everything going close was finishing second in October. We had nine winners from a sample of bets from which we'd have expected 13 winners. 

We didn't have much luck with the multiples in October either. Some nice bets on River Nymph went astray at Ascot (he actually ran a stinker and wasn't unlucky) but the defeat which really hurt was Burning Victory (12/1) in the Cesarewitch. We'd had him onside in a strong single and a double with Siskany (4/1) but, after trading at 1.10 in running, he was beaten by Buzz. The front pair pulled miles clear of the rest of the field, rubbing salt into the wounds, but given the success we'd enjoyed with our multiples in September, it would have been greedy of us (and ignorant of variance) to complain.

The other winners we backed in October included Bickerstaffe (3/1), Harry's Bar (7/4) and With Thanks (4/1). Zellie (11/1, -40p R4) won for us at the Arc meeting in France while, with the new jumps season kicking off, Ontheropes (5/1) and Soaring Glory (5/1) also secured welcome victories for us.  

Nothing in November

November was also effectively a 'nothing' month as we rode out the back end of the losing cycle. However, as was the case in October, that was fully expected given the silly amounts of profit we had generated in September - things were still levelling up. I cut the staking scale for a second time and advised members we were seeing out the rest of the season and my aim was to protect our profit generated up to that point.

The end of the season is usually difficult anyway when the ground goes and horses go over the top, and once the turf season ended on 6th November - not before Calling The Wind (12/1) came close to landing us one final chop in the November Handicap (he was second) - we were just having small bets on the AW and in the early jumps season races to take us through until the end of the 2021 service on 30th November.

We didn't have a good Breeders' Cup this year and I didn't enjoy the meeting (sharp track) at Del Mar. We usually have a winner or two at the Breeders' Cup (when staged elsewhere) but the best we could manage was place money off a few at prices this time.

November winners included King Of The South (3/1), Night On Earth (9/2), Hurricane Alex (3/1), Bonttay (5/1), Nube Negra (7/4), Run Wild Fred (7/1) and Aye Right (11/2). 

We landed a couple of small multiples on A Plus Tard & Run Wild Fred and then Epatante (dead-heated) & Aye Right, too, ultimately ending the month -1.59 pts down to best prices and -7.13 pts to worst prices (from 36.5 pts staked). 

We therefore ended the 2021 service with the following profit and loss figures:

2021 End of year figures (1st Dec '20 - 30th Nov '21)

Total Pts Staked: 799.83 pts

Total Profit to highest advised odds: +162.88 pts

Total Profit to lowest advised odds: +77.45 pts

Seasonal ROI: +20 % to +10 % (highest to lowest odds advised)

Seasonal ROC: + 203 % to +97 % (using an 80 pt betting bank)

Singles: +95.85 pts to +41.97 pts from 622.25 pts staked

Multiples: +66.83 pts to +35.48 pts from 177.58 pts staked

Recent Winners

Some of the recent bets advised on NMP include:

Talia 6/1 - WON

Angel Shared 9/2 - WON

Buy The Dip 2/1 - WON

Tony Montana 5/1 - WON

Starlust 7/1 - WON

Mitbaahy 20/1 - WON

Pepsi Cat 5/1 - WON

Woodhay Wonder 7/2 - WON

Change Signs 7/2 - WON

Economics 5/1 - WON

Clarendon House 7/1 - WON

Shadow Army 9/2 - WON

Hiatus 4/1 - WON

Eldrickjones 10/3 - WON

Bellarchi 14/1 - WON

Voodoo Ray 4/1 - WON

Democracy Dilemma 9/2 - WON

Moonlit Cloud 9/1 - WON

Brummell 11/4 - WON

Bague D'Or 7/1 - WON

Key To Cotai 11/1 - WON

Desperate Hero 6/1 - WON

See more past winners.

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